This report displays all of the observations from the Forecasting file, including the Analysis elements used for training, the actual and predicted Forecast data values, along with individual delta values and model errors. The predicted future values of the Forecast element are also displayed. The model statistical summary is displayed on each page of the report for reference. This report can be used to document the model for a better understanding of the various data values.
NEUGENTS MODEL FORECASTING PHASE ANALYSIS 1 REPORT OF FORECASTED CPUADBTM VALUES 'GOODNESS OF FIT' FOR MODEL: 0.9960 ORIGINAL INPUT PREDICTED DELTA MODEL DATE BATCH DATABASE ONLINE TSO VALUE VALUE VALUE ERROR 15SEP2001 2.67 45.54 29.12 0.23 144.27 142.87 1.40 0.0097 22SEP2001 2.75 41.29 31.21 0.35 136.17 137.78 1.62 0.0119 29SEP2001 3.06 53.18 34.63 0.39 162.61 162.11 0.49 0.0030 06OCT2001 7.93 63.50 31.33 0.38 159.36 158.31 1.04 0.0065 13OCT2001 13.99 71.30 32.69 0.29 165.47 162.30 3.17 0.0191 20OCT2001 12.99 66.66 34.37 0.32 160.39 165.71 5.32 0.0331 27OCT2001 13.88 52.05 29.12 0.32 133.68 134.29 0.61 0.0045 03NOV2001 14.19 70.01 35.56 0.30 167.47 169.48 2.02 0.0120 10NOV2001 14.69 50.32 32.00 0.29 141.49 142.92 1.42 0.0101 17NOV2001 13.91 51.62 35.40 0.34 147.46 146.03 1.43 0.0097 24NOV2001 15.50 38.81 25.59 0.23 115.67 115.47 0.20 0.0017 01DEC2001 17.20 58.84 37.84 0.30 163.94 163.48 0.46 0.0028 08DEC2001 13.75 60.88 36.40 0.24 159.86 158.93 0.94 0.0059 15DEC2001 15.15 60.09 37.31 0.31 163.05 161.10 1.95 0.0120 22DEC2001 17.44 56.54 33.22 0.18 154.92 154.17 0.75 0.0048 29DEC2001 10.33 31.49 16.82 0.14 86.25 86.11 0.14 0.0016 31DEC2001 1.57 6.55 4.05 0.04 19.80 19.94 0.14 0.0069 05JAN2002 11.88 34.93 21.15 0.17 99.09 99.41 0.32 0.0032 12JAN2002 16.31 60.84 37.65 0.38 167.67 166.42 1.25 0.0075 19JAN2002 15.24 61.11 38.68 0.20 166.61 166.93 0.32 0.0019 26JAN2002 15.85 55.85 37.19 0.29 157.22 159.74 2.52 0.0161 02FEB2002 14.77 63.80 39.32 0.36 169.00 172.13 3.13 0.0185 09FEB2002 11.24 60.06 34.22 0.35 152.11 154.39 2.28 0.0150 16FEB2002 12.15 59.74 36.37 0.23 158.76 160.74 1.98 0.0125 23FEB2002 10.47 53.77 33.49 0.20 142.05 143.95 1.91 0.0134 02MAR2002 9.15 57.73 36.66 0.31 150.36 148.77 1.59 0.0106 09MAR2002 12.67 61.95 39.14 0.34 165.46 164.99 0.47 0.0028 16MAR2002 11.95 67.60 39.30 0.38 173.09 170.94 2.15 0.0124 23MAR2002 9.11 59.23 37.02 0.55 154.08 155.29 1.21 0.0078 30MAR2002 13.53 61.93 37.49 0.31 163.67 160.67 3.00 0.0183 06APR2002 19.47 75.42 34.47 0.21 177.51 178.54 1.03 0.0058 13APR2002 9.74 76.24 34.57 0.23 164.34 165.44 1.10 0.0067 20APR2002 12.89 75.06 36.22 0.25 168.64 165.82 2.82 0.0167 27APR2002 10.31 74.04 37.12 0.25 166.66 167.80 1.14 0.0068 04MAY2002 14.57 55.43 29.77 0.25 142.77 141.59 1.17 0.0082 11MAY2002 12.67 64.10 31.22 0.36 155.23 154.30 0.93 0.0060 18MAY2002 15.78 55.85 35.58 0.28 157.35 157.38 0.03 0.0002 25MAY2002 11.24 55.38 33.01 0.27 145.13 142.69 2.44 0.0168 01JUN2002 14.46 66.30 33.47 0.24 160.80 161.15 0.35 0.0022 08JUN2002 23.91 66.17 35.16 0.92 176.78 176.05 0.72 0.0041 15JUN2002 15.35 65.61 35.57 0.34 167.29 22JUN2002 15.49 66.01 35.69 0.34 168.18 29JUN2002 15.63 66.41 35.82 0.34 168.87 06JUL2002 15.78 66.81 35.94 0.35 169.34 13JUL2002 15.92 67.21 36.06 0.35 169.55 20JUL2002 16.06 67.62 36.18 0.35 169.51 27JUL2002 16.20 68.02 36.30 0.35 169.22 03AUG2002 16.34 68.42 36.43 0.35 168.67 10AUG2002 16.48 68.82 36.55 0.36 167.88 LEGEND: ACTUAL VALUES (CPUADBTM) - 'A' PREDICTED VALUES - 'P' NEUGENTS MODEL FORECASTING PHASE ANALYSIS REPORT OF FORECASTED CPUADBTM VALUES 'GOODNESS OF FIT' FOR MODEL: 0.9960 ORIGINAL INPUT PREDICTED DELTA MODEL DATE BATCH DATABASE ONLINE TSO VALUE VALUE VALUE ERROR 17AUG2002 16.62 69.22 36.67 0.36 166.88 24AUG2002 16.77 69.63 36.79 0.36 165.69 31AUG2002 16.91 70.03 36.91 0.36 164.36 07SEP2002 17.05 70.43 37.04 0.36 162.94
Figure 14-17. Forecasting Phase Analysis Report This report displays one line per observation period; weekly in this case study. This sample report uses the "HOURS" option for formatting the resource element values and shows a sample of the modeled input. Since this information is also available in a more concise form as a printer graph, a typical model execution will probably generate the graph(s) and reexecute, generating the reports if more detail is required. For this case study, the entire report has been made available in order to demonstrate the prediction of future values of the Forecast element, CPUADBTM.
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