14. WORKLOAD FORECASTING › 14.6 Case Studies › 14.6.1 Processor Usage Study › 14.6.1.5 Forecasting Phase Analysis Graph

14.6.1.5 Forecasting Phase Analysis Graph

This graph displays all of the observations from the Primary
CAP file, including the actual and predicted values of the
Analysis element. The model "goodness of fit" statistic is
displayed on each page of the report for reference.  This
graph can be used to evaluate the success of the model
forecasting phase.

                    NEUGENTS MODEL FORECASTING PHASE ANALYSIS                  1
                       PLOT OF FORECASTED CPUADBTM VALUES
                      'GOODNESS OF FIT' FOR MODEL: 0.9960

         -------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+--------
         |                                                                     |
         |                                                                     |
  194.44 +                                                                     +
         |                                                                     |
         |                                                                     |
         |                                        P                            |
         |                                        A      A                     |
         |                     P          A    A             PPP               |
  166.67 +                   A A        A     A   PAA     PPP   PPPP           +
         |                 A A    AAA    P  P    AA     A           P          |
         |                  A      P     A  A   P     AA                       |
         |                           A     A    A     P                        |
         |                       A           A                                 |
         |               A      A            A       A  A                      |
A 138.89 +                P                                                    +
d        |                A   A                                                |
j        |                                                                     |
u        |                                                                     |
s        |                                                                     |
t        |                        A                                            |
e 111.11 +                                                                     +
d        |                                                                     |
         |                                                                     |
C        |                             A                                       |
P        |                                                                     |
U        |                            A                                        |
   83.33 +                                                                     +
T        |                                                                     |
i        |                                                                     |
m        |                                                                     |
e        |                                                                     |
         |                                                                     |
   55.56 +                                                                     +
         |                                                                     |
         |                                                                     |
         |                                                                     |
         |                                                                     |
         |                                                                     |
   27.78 +                                                                     +
         |                                                                     |
         |                            A                                        |
         |                                                                     |
         |                                                                     |
         |                                                                     |
    0.00 +                                                                     +
         |                                                                     |
         -------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+--------
             07:2001    10:2001    01:2002    04:2002    07:2002    10:2002

                                    Interval End Date

  NOTE: 13 obs had missing values.  34 obs hidden.

                     LEGEND: ACTUAL VALUES (CPUADBTM) - 'A'
                             PREDICTED VALUES         - 'P'

 Figure 14-18.  Forecasting Phase Analysis Graph

This graph provides an easy visual evaluation of model
effectiveness by displaying the actual and predicted values
of the Forecast element.  This display, along with the model
"goodness of fit" statistic repeated here allow the analyst
to make a quick and accurate assessment of model performance
during forecasting and determine whether the model should be
considered as trustworthy. In this case study, in spite of
the odd pattern of the usage data, the model has performed
very well in predicting the Forecast element values and is
considered to be reliable. Note that the future values
predicted by the model actually increase initially and then
decrease, owing to the non-linear methodology employed by
Neugents technology. This is a strength of this particular
approach and provides for more accurate results.