This graph displays all of the observations from the Forecast file, including the actual and predicted values of the Forecast element. The linear regression statistics are displayed on each page of the report for reference. This graph can be used to evaluate the success of the model Forecast phase and to demonstrate the predicted values of the Forecast data element.
REGRESSION MODEL OUTPUT GRAPH PLOT OF FORECASTED CPUADBTM VALUES MODEL STATISTICS: M= 101.764500 B= -1447836 R2= 0.1694 -------+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-------- | | 44 + + | | | A | | | | | 39 + A A + | A | | A A A | | A A A A A P P P P P | A | A A A P P P P P P A | d 33 + A A A A P P P P A P A A A + j | A P P P P P | u | A A P P P A P P A A A | s | A P P P P P A | t | A A P A P P P P | e 28 + P P P P A + d | A A A A | | | C | | P | | U 22 + + | A | T | A | i | | m | | e 17 + + | | | | | | | | 11 + + | | | | | | | | 6 + A + | | -------+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-------- 1 1 2 0 0 1 2 3 0 1 2 2 0 1 1 2 0 0 1 2 3 0 1 2 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 1 2 3 0 1 2 2 0 1 1 2 0 0 2 9 6 2 9 6 3 0 7 4 1 8 4 1 8 5 2 9 6 3 0 6 3 0 7 3 0 7 4 3 0 7 4 1 7 4 1 8 5 2 9 6 2 9 A A A S S S S S O O O O N N N N D D D D D J J J J F F F F M M M M M A A A A M M M M J J U U U E E E E E C C C C O O O O E E E E E A A A A E E E E A A A A A P P P P A A A A U U G G G P P P P P T T T T V V V V C C C C C N N N N B B B B R R R R R R R R R Y Y Y Y N N 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Interval End Date NOTE: 4 obs hidden. LEGEND: ACTUAL VALUES (CPUADBTM) - 'A' PREDICTED VALUES - 'P'
Figure 14-7. Regression Model Output Graph This graph provides an easy visual evaluation of model effectiveness by displaying the actual and predicted values of the Forecast element. This display, along with the regression model statistics repeated here allow the analyst to make a quick and accurate assessment of model performance during prediction and to then determine whether the model is representative of the input data. Simple linear regression techniques are used primarily as a data exploration tool and have limited capability in capacity planning applications, as evidenced by the extremely poor R**2 value in the above example.
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