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14.3.2.5 Regression Model Output Graph


This graph displays all of the observations from the Forecast
file, including the actual and predicted values of the
Forecast element. The linear regression statistics are
displayed on each page of the report for reference.  This
graph can be used to evaluate the success of the model
Forecast phase and to demonstrate the predicted values of the
Forecast data element.

REGRESSION MODEL OUTPUT GRAPH PLOT OF FORECASTED CPUADBTM VALUES MODEL STATISTICS: M= 101.764500 B= -1447836 R2= 0.1694 -------+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-------- | | 44 + + | | | A | | | | | 39 + A A + | A | | A A A | | A A A A A P P P P P | A | A A A P P P P P P A | d 33 + A A A A P P P P A P A A A + j | A P P P P P | u | A A P P P A P P A A A | s | A P P P P P A | t | A A P A P P P P | e 28 + P P P P A + d | A A A A | | | C | | P | | U 22 + + | A | T | A | i | | m | | e 17 + + | | | | | | | | 11 + + | | | | | | | | 6 + A + | | -------+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-------- 1 1 2 0 0 1 2 3 0 1 2 2 0 1 1 2 0 0 1 2 3 0 1 2 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 1 2 3 0 1 2 2 0 1 1 2 0 0 2 9 6 2 9 6 3 0 7 4 1 8 4 1 8 5 2 9 6 3 0 6 3 0 7 3 0 7 4 3 0 7 4 1 7 4 1 8 5 2 9 6 2 9 A A A S S S S S O O O O N N N N D D D D D J J J J F F F F M M M M M A A A A M M M M J J U U U E E E E E C C C C O O O O E E E E E A A A A E E E E A A A A A P P P P A A A A U U G G G P P P P P T T T T V V V V C C C C C N N N N B B B B R R R R R R R R R Y Y Y Y N N 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Interval End Date NOTE: 4 obs hidden. LEGEND: ACTUAL VALUES (CPUADBTM) - 'A' PREDICTED VALUES - 'P'


 Figure 14-7.  Regression Model Output Graph

This graph provides an easy visual evaluation of model
effectiveness by displaying the actual and predicted values
of the Forecast element.  This display, along with the
regression model statistics repeated here allow the analyst
to make a quick and accurate assessment of model performance
during prediction and to then determine whether the model is
representative of the input data.  Simple linear regression
techniques are used primarily as a data exploration tool and
have limited capability in capacity planning applications, as
evidenced by the extremely poor R**2 value in the above
example.