14. WORKLOAD FORECASTING › 14.3 Standard Output › 14.3.2 Standard Reports and Graphs › 14.3.2.4 Forecasting Phase Analysis Graph

14.3.2.4 Forecasting Phase Analysis Graph

This graph displays all of the observations from the
Forecasting file, including the actual and predicted values
of the Forecast element. The model "goodness of fit"
statistic is displayed on each page of the report for
reference.  This graph can be used to evaluate the success of
the model forecasting phase and to demonstrate the forecasted
values of the Forecast data element.

                    NEUGENTS MODEL FORECASTING PHASE ANALYSIS                  1
                       PLOT OF FORECASTED CPUADBTM VALUES
                      'GOODNESS OF FIT' FOR MODEL: 0.9960

         -------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+--------
         |                                                                     |
         |                                                                     |
  194.44 +                                                                     +
         |                                                                     |
         |                                                                     |
         |                                        P                            |
         |                                        A      A                     |
         |                     P          A    A             PPP               |
  166.67 +                   A A        A     A   PAA     PPP   PPPP           +
         |                 A A    AAA    P  P    AA     A           P          |
         |                  A      P     A  A   P     AA                       |
         |                           A     A    A     P                        |
         |                       A           A                                 |
         |               A      A            A       A  A                      |
A 138.89 +                P                                                    +
d        |                A   A                                                |
j        |                                                                     |
u        |                                                                     |
s        |                                                                     |
t        |                        A                                            |
e 111.11 +                                                                     +
d        |                                                                     |
         |                                                                     |
C        |                             A                                       |
P        |                                                                     |
U        |                            A                                        |
   83.33 +                                                                     +
T        |                                                                     |
i        |                                                                     |
m        |                                                                     |
e        |                                                                     |
         |                                                                     |
   55.56 +                                                                     +
         |                                                                     |
         |                                                                     |
         |                                                                     |
         |                                                                     |
         |                                                                     |
   27.78 +                                                                     +
         |                                                                     |
         |                            A                                        |
         |                                                                     |
         |                                                                     |
         |                                                                     |
    0.00 +                                                                     +
         |                                                                     |
         -------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+--------
             07:2001    10:2001    01:2002    04:2002    07:2002    10:2002

                                    Interval End Date

 NOTE: 13 obs had missing values.  34 obs hidden.

                     LEGEND: ACTUAL VALUES (CPUADBTM) - 'A'
                             PREDICTED VALUES         - 'P'

 Figure 14-6.  Forecasting Phase Analysis Graph

This graph provides an easy visual evaluation of model
effectiveness by displaying the actual and predicted values
of the Forecast element.  This display, along with the model
"goodness of fit" statistic repeated here, allow the analyst
to make a quick and accurate assessment of model performance
during Forecasting and determine whether the model should be
considered as trustworthy.  Future Forecast element values
predicted by the model actually can increase and decrease
over time, owing to the non-linear methodology employed by
Neugents technology. This is a strength of this particular
approach and provides for more accurate results.