9. MULTIVARIATE REGRESSION FORECASTING › 9.5 Component Operation › 9.5.1 Multivariate Regression Forecasting Control Screen
9.5.1 Multivariate Regression Forecasting Control Screen
The Multivariate Regression Forecasting control parameters
allow you to develop forecast models based on stepwise
multivariate regression. You can save the forecasts produced
by the program in a forecast file corresponding to the file
you specify as the source of the dependent variable for the
model.
Using a short set of menus that are described in Section 1.5
of this guide, you will arrive at the Multivariate Regression
Forecasting screen shown in Figure 9-4. The Multivariate
Regression Forecasting control screen appears after you
indicate that you want to insert a new Multivariate
Regression Forecasting analysis inquiry into your catalog of
inquiries. Two fields on this screen are filled in on the
fourth line when you first see it: the inquiry name and the
inquiry description, separated by a dash. You entered these
two fields on the Insert Capacity Planning Analysis screen
when you requested that a new inquiry be added.
/-------------------- Multivariate Regression Forecasting --------------------\
|Command ===> |
|Enter a ? in any data entry field for more information on valid values. |
|Composing CA MICS Inquiry: ADHOC - Adhoc Inquiry - Will Not Be Saved |
| |
|Report title ===> Adhoc Inquiry - Will Not Be Saved |
| |
|Selection criteria: |
| Dependent file ===> ___ - |
| Dependent element ===> ________ |
| Start date ===> _________ (ddmonyyyy) |
| SYSID ===> ____ |
| LVL ===> ________ |
| No. wk/mn ===> ____ (1-9999) |
| Specify CAPAPU Values ===> N (Y/N) |
|Save forecast ===> ___ (YES/NO/AGE) |
|Independent file ===> ___ - |
|Independent elements ===> ________ ________ ________ ________ ________ |
| ________ ________ ________ ________ ________ |
| |
|Confidence limits (percent) ===> __ (70/90/95) |
|Min R-square improvement ===> _____ (0.000-0.100) |
|Delete observations ===> N (Y/N/R) |
| |
\------------------------------------------------------------------------------/
Figure 9-4. Multivariate Regression Forecasting Control Screen
Some of the parameters on the Multivariate Regression
Forecasting screen shown in Figure 9-4 are required, while
others are optional. The following is a discussion of the
various parameters as they appear in this figure.
Report The 60-character title for Multivariate
title: Regression Forecasting reports. No double
quotes (") or semicolons (;) may appear within
the body of the title.
Dependent The resource element or business element
file: capacity planning database file containing the
historical observations for the dependent
variable of the regression model. If you are
uncertain of the files or file names available
in your capacity planning database, type a
question mark (?) in the field and a selection
list will be displayed.
Dependent The name of the dependent variable in the
element: regression model. If you are uncertain of the
correct name of the data elements in the input
file, type a question mark (?) in this field
and a selection list of available data elements
will be presented.
Start date: The start date for date range selection. If
Start date is specified, only historical
observations at least as recent as this value
will be included in the analysis. The
discussion of the following control parameter
describes the options for controlling date
range selection.
SYSID: The SYSID for which the report is to be
produced. If the Dependent file is a resource
element file and is defined as having a
composite SYSID, this value is supplied
automatically on the screen. Note that if the
Independent file is a resource element file, it
must also contain historical observations for
this SYSID. If the Independent file is a
business element file, this requirement does
not apply, since business element files are not
defined as containing the SYSID data element.
LVL: The Zone, Hour or Dayname to be included in the
analysis, depending on whether you define the
Dependent file at the ZONE, HOUR, or DAYNAME
summarization level. If the Dependent File is
a resource element file and you define it as
having a composite ZONE, HOUR, or DAYNAME this
value is automatically supplied on the screen.
Note that if the Independent file is a resource
element file, it must also contain historical
observations for this ZONE, HOUR or DAYNAME.
If the Independent file is a business element
file, this requirement does not apply, since
business element files are not defined as
containing the ZONE, HOUR or DAYNAME data
element. Note that the field name will
automatically be changed from LVL to either
ZONE, HOUR, or DAYNAME to reflect the Input
file summarization level once you specify the
Input file.
No. wk/mn: The maximum number of days, weeks, or months of
historical observations that will be included
in the analysis. Note that the field name will
change once you specify the Dependent file to
reflect the time-span of the Dependent file.
When used in conjunction with the Start date
parameter, several options are available for
date range selection control:
o If you specify only Start date, all
historical observations at least as recent
as the value specified for Start date will
be selected.
o If you specify both Start date and No.
wk/mn, the date range for data selection
will begin with the value specified for
Start date and will extend for the specified
number of days, weeks, or months.
o If you specify only No. wk/mn, the date
range for data selection will include only
this number of the most recent days, weeks,
or months.
o If you specify neither parameter, then all
historical observations will be selected.
Specify Put a Y in this field to specify the CAPAPU
CAPAPU value(s) (up to nine) to be included in the
Values: analysis. The CAPAPU values are specified on
the CAPAPU Selection Values screen shown in
Figure 9-5. You may specify CAPAPUs only if
the Dependent file is a resource element file
and is defined as containing the CAPAPU data
elements. Note that if the Independent file is
a resource element file, it must also contain
historical observations for the specified
CAPAPU values. If the Independent file is a
business element file, this requirement does
not apply, since business element files are not
defined as containing the CAPAPU data element.
Save Three options for saving the forecasted
forecast: observations in the forecast file corresponding
to the Dependent file.
o Specifying YES causes the forecasted
observations to be saved in the capacity
planning database forecast file (CPFxxx01)
without aging the file as described in
Chapter 3.
o Specifying NO results in the forecasted
observations not being saved in the forecast
file. If you select this option, the
forecast file will not be aged.
o Specifying AGE causes the forecasted
observations to be saved in the forecast
file and the forecast files to be aged as
described in Chapter 3.
Independent The resource element or business element
file: capacity planning database file containing the
historical observations for the independent
variable of the regression model. If you are
uncertain of the files or file names available
in your capacity planning database file, type
a question mark (?) in the field and a
selection list will be displayed.
Independent The names of up to ten independent variables
elements: for the regression model. If you are uncertain
of the correct name of the data elements in the
Input file, type a question mark (?) in this
field and a selection list of available data
elements will be displayed. The number of
Independent elements that you may specify is
limited by the number of historical
observations in the capacity planning database
files. This restriction is best explained by
the following logical relationship:
n - ie - 1 >= 3
Where n is the number of historical
observations and ie is the number of
Independent elements that you specify. For
example, you must have 14 historical
observations in order to specify 10 independent
elements (14-10-1) > 3. This restriction is
enforced to provide a minimum of three degrees
of freedom for the statistical models developed
by the program.
Confidence The degree of confidence to be used in
limits calculating the upper and lower confidence
(percent): limits for the forecasted values of the
Dependent element. The default is 95%.
Minimum The r-squared improvement criterion for the
R-squared regression model. This value excludes any
improvement: independent element from the regression model
whose inclusion does not increase the overall
r-squared value by at least this amount. The
default is 0.01.
Delete Enter a Y to obtain the screen shown in
observations: Figure 9-7. Enter an R to reset (nullify)
any previous date deletion specifications.
If you entered a Y in the Specify CAPAPU values filed on the
Multivariate Regression Forecasting screen, the CAPAPU
Selection Values screen displays, as shown in Figure 9-5.
On the CAPAPU Selection Values screen, you may specify the
CAPAPU values (up to nine) to be included in the analysis.
You may specify CAPAPUs only if the capacity planning data
base file is defined as containing the CAPAPU data elements.
You may use wild cards (? and *) when specifying CAPAPUs. A
question mark (?) replaces one character; an asterisk (*)
replaces all the characters after that point.
/------------------------- CAPAPU Selection Values -------------------------\
|Command ===> |
| |
|Composing CA MICS Inquiry: PGRR01 PRESENTATION GRAPHICS FOR CAPAPU |
| |
| Rule ----+----1----+----2----+----3----+----4----+----5----+----6---|
|CAPAPU ===> _______________________________________________________________|
|CAPAPU 2 ===> _______________________________________________________________|
|CAPAPU 3 ===> _______________________________________________________________|
|CAPAPU 4 ===> _______________________________________________________________|
|CAPAPU 5 ===> _______________________________________________________________|
|CAPAPU 6 ===> _______________________________________________________________|
|CAPAPU 7 ===> _______________________________________________________________|
|CAPAPU 8 ===> _______________________________________________________________|
|CAPAPU 9 ===> _______________________________________________________________|
| |
\------------------------------------------------------------------------------/\
Figure 9-5. CAPAPU Selection Values Screen
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All rights reserved.
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