7. UNIVARIATE MODEL FORECASTING › 7.6 Case Studies › 7.6.1 Extended Example Univariate Model Forecasting › 7.6.1.2 Control Parameters
7.6.1.2 Control Parameters
Figure 7-16 shows the Univariate Model Forecasting, Extended
Options, and Transform Historical Observations screens that
contain the control parameters used to perform univariate
modeling on the channel 5 SIO count.
/------------------------ Univariate Model Forecasting -----------------------\
|Command ===> |
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|Composing CA MICS Inquiry: CHNUVM - Univariate Modeling Inquiry |
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|Report title ===> Univariate Modeling Inquiry |
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|Selection criteria: |
| Input file ===> CHN - I/O Channel Example |
| Start date ===> _________ (ddmonyyyy) |
| SYSID ===> TSO1 |
| Zone ===> 1________ |
| No. months ===> ____ (1-9999) |
| Save forecast ===> YES (YES/NO/AGE) |
| Specify CAPAPU Values ===> N (Y/N) |
|Forecast data element ===> CHAN5CNT |
|Forecast length (months) ===> 8 (1-9999) |
|Confidence limits (percent) ===> 95 (70/90/95) |
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|Time element terms: Linear ===> YES (YES/NO) |
| Quadratic ===> ___ (YES/NO) |
| Cubic ===> ___ (YES/NO) |
|Specify extended options ===> Y (Y/N) |
\------------------------------------------------------------------------------/
Figure 7-16. Extended Example Control Parameters (Screen 1 of 3)
/--------------------------- Extended Options Menu ---------------------------\
|Command ===> |
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|Inquiry Step: Univariate Model Forecasting |
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|Print Reports ===> YES (YES/NO) |
|Maximum R-Square for report ===> 0.55 (0.00-1.00) |
|P-Value flag ===> 0.05 (0.000-1.000) |
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|Delete historical data observations ===> N (Y/N/R) |
|Transform historical observations ===> N (Y/N/R) |
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\------------------------------------------------------------------------------/
Figure 7-16. Extended Example Control Parameters (Screen 2 of 3)
/--------------------- Transform Historical Observations ---------------------\
|Command ===> |
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|Inquiry Step: Univariate Model Forecasting |
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|Smoothing technique ===> GMA (GMA/LOG10/USER/NONE) |
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|Geometric moving average data smoothing parameters: |
| Equation alpha value ===> .5 (.01 - .99) |
| Initial value ===> ________ |
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|User defined data transformation SAS statements: |
| Statements to transform historical data ===> N (Y/N/R) |
| Stmts. to reverse history transformations ===> N (Y/N/R) |
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\------------------------------------------------------------------------------/
Figure 7-16. Extended Example Control Parameters (Screen 3 of 3)
The Univariate Model Forecasting screen shown in Figure 7-16
contains the following parameters.
Report title: The title that appears on the reports.
Input file: The CHN resource element file that was
originally defined in the extended example in
Section 3.3.3.1 of this guide.
Start date The start date for date range selection and the
and maximum number of days, weeks, or months
No. months: included in the analysis.
Since neither Start date nor No. months is
specified for this analysis, no date range
selection is applied to the historical
observations from the CHN resource element
file.
SYSID: Historical observations only for SYSID TSO1.
Zone: The summary level selection criteria for the
analysis. Since the CHN resource element file
was defined in Section 3.3.3.1 at the ZONE
summary level, this parameter specifies that
only historical observations for ZONE 1 are
included in the analysis.
Save The specification to save the results of the
Forecast: analysis in the forecast file. For this
example, YES is specified so that the forecast
file will not be aged prior to saving (that is,
prior values are overwritten).
Specify The specification for CAPAPU. The CHN resource
CAPAPU element file was not defined as containing the
Values: CAPAPU data element, therefore no CAPAPU value
may be specified on this screen.
Forecast The name of the data element (CHAN5CNT) in the
Data Limit: Capacity Planning resource file that contains
SIO counts for channel 5.
Forecast The length of the forecast observation. Eight
length: is selected as a conservative number of
estimates to be made from the 12 historical
observations that are contained in the CHN
resource element file. (You should never
specify a forecast longer than the historical
data series.)
Confidence The degree of confidence to be used in
limits calculating the upper and lower confidence
(percent): limits for the forecasted values of the
forecast data element. The default is 95 %.
Time element The time elements to be used in the regression
terms: process. LINEAR is specified for this example.
Specify The specification for selecting extended
extended options. Specifying extended options causes
options: the Transform Historical Observations screen to
display. In this example, GMA (geometric
moving average) is chosen for the Smoothing
technique parameter, with 0.5 for the alpha
value.
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