The purpose of this study is to develop a model to forecast the start I/O counts and the utilization loads that would be experienced by the channels on a 9021-711. The collecting historical data to support this example was discussed in the extended example in Section 3.3.3.1. Twelve months of historical data was collected for channels 1 through 5 for the system SYSIDs TSO1 and TSO2 for ZONEs 1 and 2. This extended example concentrates on the start I/O counts for channel 5 on SYSID TSO1 during ZONE 1. Although the development of the remaining forecasts (utilizations and the SIO counts for the other channels) are not shown in this example, they are similar to the forecast discussed in the following sections. The first step in the modeling process is to obtain a listing of the historical data observations. To do this, specify YES for the List updated CAP DB file contents parameter on the Update Capacity Planning File screen shown in Chapter 3 when a database update inquiry is executed. Figure 7-15 shows a sample report from the update of the CHN Capacity Planning database file. Note that while the CHN database file contains observations for TSO1 and TSO2 for Zones 1 and 2, this extended example focuses only on the observations for TSO1 for Zone 1. A cursory investigation of the channel 5 SIO counts (data element CHAN5CNT) reveals an increasing trend with a significant amount of random variations. (These random variations are not surprising since the system being analyzed processes a random arrival batch and TSO workload in a service bureau.) Therefore, the initial approach to developing a model for this system was to fit a linear trend to the historical values after they were smoothed using a geometric moving average.
CA MICS Capacity Planner OBS DATE MONTH SYSID YEAR ZONE CHAN1BS CHAN1CNT CHAN2BS CHAN2CNT CHAN3BS CHAN3CNT CHAN4BS CHAN4CNT CHAN5BS CHAN5CNT 1 30SEP97 9 TSO1 97 1 5.3569 10283160 18.9219 12621388 18.8242 16971048 7.2551 3640411 15.7917 11882418 2 30OCT97 10 TSO1 97 1 5.5168 11306966 19.4883 13861055 19.6445 18385386 7.3911 3822387 14.7969 12860633 3 30NOV97 11 TSO1 97 1 6.3586 11414859 19.7500 11717108 20.2109 16663774 9.9683 4338143 15.9124 11743581 4 31DEC97 12 TSO1 97 1 5.3074 9976870 18.0391 12327566 18.5586 16800745 8.8547 5247391 14.6099 12510012 5 29JAN98 1 TSO1 98 1 6.0647 10611907 18.9922 11156555 19.3750 16185623 8.9697 4257223 15.6548 12071368 6 26FEB98 2 TSO1 98 1 6.3376 10960937 23.0977 12830799 18.8438 15257229 11.1433 5641456 16.2344 12076524 7 31MAR98 3 TSO1 98 1 5.4783 10025924 19.6797 12843967 16.9063 13669835 9.5486 5318293 14.8582 12186976 8 30APR98 4 TSO1 98 1 4.7642 9870709 17.9570 13093325 15.2307 14904987 7.6726 5033416 14.3140 14355185 9 28MAY98 5 TSO1 98 1 4.5576 8851487 17.7852 11399322 15.6868 13645679 8.2495 4494512 14.5493 15011392 10 30JUN98 6 TSO1 98 1 4.9968 10545954 17.5703 12099310 15.7957 14443173 9.2905 5437664 15.1023 17176448 11 30JUL98 7 TSO1 98 1 6.9377 14139601 21.0313 13436249 18.6172 15858031 11.7161 6582489 17.7891 17421158 12 31AUG98 8 TSO1 98 1 8.5986 14220067 30.9336 17448773 15.0393 14690555 10.7354 6879567 15.3848 18042957 13 30SEP97 9 TSO1 97 2 3.6626 3844805 21.0391 9137237 25.5938 12868504 9.1514 4359236 16.0000 10247086 14 30OCT97 10 TSO1 97 2 3.6033 4058408 21.1641 9761257 23.7773 12025920 8.2043 3752326 14.9243 10098182 15 30NOV97 11 TSO1 97 2 3.5081 3559998 21.0078 8160196 26.0352 11506972 9.4600 3786755 15.9133 9260268 16 31DEC97 12 TSO1 97 2 2.6174 3018221 22.1406 10373391 30.1250 12866071 11.2361 4973300 16.9727 11058613 17 29JAN98 1 TSO1 98 2 2.0652 2197819 18.7461 8134965 24.0313 10484711 8.0525 3572788 15.1262 8586867 18 26FEB98 2 TSO1 98 2 2.4753 2669361 21.7070 8721177 24.9844 11027921 10.0513 4014299 16.1367 9080303 19 31MAR98 3 TSO1 98 2 1.9980 2196140 18.5313 7999537 22.3164 11310782 9.1003 3852128 13.9209 8682421 20 30APR98 4 TSO1 98 2 1.5474 1753226 17.7422 7390090 20.3477 9696053 7.9121 3435097 14.7136 9351902 21 28MAY98 5 TSO1 98 2 1.5369 1670242 16.2227 6574310 18.8555 9463561 8.3237 3304728 13.3713 8148197 22 30JUN98 6 TSO1 98 2 2.0928 2596361 17.6797 7756252 21.4180 11278067 9.4841 3893271 15.0049 9578109 23 30JUL98 7 TSO1 98 2 3.1802 3551786 20.6289 7575368 26.1992 13215648 11.2686 3863744 14.9900 8710056 24 31AUG98 8 TSO1 98 2 3.3550 3475517 30.0859 10478833 23.7578 10705401 11.3088 4154695 13.9648 8859281 25 30SEP97 9 TSO2 97 1 5.8586 4117146 19.7070 19625621 20.8047 22304391 12.7476 9302529 10.8057 12295717 26 30OCT97 10 TSO2 97 1 14.7346 2722390 19.8320 20338573 19.9375 22521512 15.4590 11686631 10.7395 12889200 27 30NOV97 11 TSO2 97 1 13.7773 3809002 14.9670 15289886 18.5938 19254275 12.3804 8388867 8.9019 10402395 28 31DEC97 12 TSO2 97 1 10.0374 4721964 13.4104 13712714 16.6367 17817953 15.4211 10188718 9.0366 12847178 29 29JAN98 1 TSO2 98 1 12.7666 5548874 16.8281 13845993 17.6797 18586811 12.6563 8258431 9.9780 15816183 30 26FEB98 2 TSO2 98 1 10.8706 7771787 16.3789 13405987 15.9539 17237412 13.2949 10653306 10.2646 17803695 31 31MAR98 3 TSO2 98 1 13.4224 9735884 15.5269 14151218 15.9382 17819024 14.6516 10932092 9.5662 17208264 32 30APR98 4 TSO2 98 1 11.6868 5365007 13.5408 13405430 13.8350 17208020 13.9941 10965281 8.9309 18366040 33 28MAY98 5 TSO2 98 1 8.6855 6873986 14.3179 13105377 13.7134 15188405 13.4080 9084066 10.0325 18941408 34 30JUN98 6 TSO2 98 1 10.0339 7030206 15.9690 14749902 14.5276 16348721 16.5117 10999226 10.6196 20710472 35 30JUL98 7 TSO2 98 1 8.2434 7093482 14.4727 13043652 13.4624 14116174 15.6594 10289280 8.7729 17823803 36 31AUG98 8 TSO2 98 1 13.1682 9970887 24.8711 17365170 13.7458 13949379 12.1421 9414241 8.8535 15638684 37 30SEP97 9 TSO2 97 2 2.7336 880241 18.6016 9049081 25.0039 10550887 10.5205 3584787 11.0811 6455642 38 30OCT97 10 TSO2 97 2 7.3264 679033 21.8281 9497450 24.7461 10452369 14.0229 4612623 10.7666 6382688 39 30NOV97 11 TSO2 97 2 6.6284 784134 17.5781 7030350 21.5352 8291186 8.3538 2943352 11.3120 5859400 40 31DEC97 12 TSO2 97 2 4.1448 858595 13.8445 5741095 16.3867 6745006 9.0964 3310562 8.4487 5035398 41 29JAN97 1 TSO2 98 2 4.4250 956579 18.9531 7723973 21.4648 8545945 10.4185 3550842 11.7129 6831805 42 26FEB98 2 TSO2 98 2 3.6133 1217462 20.1680 7515701 20.2422 7863046 13.5088 4195880 13.0649 7158157 43 31MAR98 3 TSO2 98 2 6.2932 2400223 23.8320 9675267 25.9297 11585347 15.1511 5334095 14.5879 8925649 44 30APR98 4 TSO2 98 2 4.4189 1045310 22.6758 8853916 22.8203 10761397 15.0293 4769231 12.6448 7748332 45 28MAY98 5 TSO2 98 2 3.0962 1307297 20.6953 7138379 22.4414 9365947 14.7139 3981306 13.8040 7103022 46 30JUN98 6 TSO2 98 2 3.2813 1239208 22.0625 8164637 20.7148 9408193 14.6201 4561230 12.8960 7367164 47 30JUL98 7 TSO2 98 2 2.0996 896128 18.2734 5934381 16.2227 6571253 14.1196 3805317 8.7349 5075665 48 31AUG98 8 TSO2 98 2 3.4624 1362194 26.0430 7640659 17.9375 5866009 14.2581 3940249 9.8955 4596676
Figure 7-15. CHN Resource Element File Contents Report
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