This report is produced only when the Forecasting Alerting option is chosen. The report displays those observations that occur in common between the Baseline Forecast (original) file, the updated Actual (observed values) file, and the Current (temporary) Forecast file, as ordered by the Sysid and time span values. Additionally, the upper and lower alerting limits used to generate alerts and the percentage of variation observed from the Forecast Baseline Values. This report is used to understand what alerts were raised during the forecast operation, if any, and which limits were exceeded. Appropriate MICSLOG messages will be issued to summarized the alerting operation as well.
Analysis of Neugents Forecasting Model: Forecast Check Forecast Data Verification for: CPUADBTM - Adjusted CPU Time Actual File Input Date Range: 04DEC2004 - 10SEP2005 Baseline Forecast Date Range: 13AUG2005 - 15OCT2005 Forecast Level: WEEK Forecast Length: 10 Forecast Threshold: 10 % Observations Selected from Sysid: PROD for HOUR 22
Actual Baseline Current Percent Observed Forecasted Forecasted Lower Upper From ALERT Date Values Values Values Alert Limit Alert Limit Baseline Flag 13AUG2005 70:21:05.92 96:04:01.54 86:27:37.39 105:40:25.69 -26.77 <==== 20AUG2005 101:49:03.12 97:30:39.02 87:45:35.12 107:15:42.93 4.42 27AUG2005 123:22:45.59 98:57:35.50 89:03:49.95 108:51:21.05 24.68 <==== 03SEP2005 107:35:46.14 100:24:29.04 90:22:02.14 110:26:55.95 7.16 10SEP2005 85:20:15.03 101:50:55.80 91:39:50.22 112:02:01.38 -16.21 <==== 17SEP2005 103:16:30.34 72:20:35.55 92:56:51.31 113:36:09.37 -29.95 <==== 24SEP2005 104:40:46.12 103:21:33.33 94:12:41.50 115:08:50.73 -1.26 01OCT2005 106:03:15.96 134:24:46.87 95:26:56.36 116:39:35.55 26.74 <==== 08OCT2005 107:23:32.64 105:30:18.81 96:39:11.38 118:07:53.91 -1.76 15OCT2005 108:41:09.54 106:38:11.24 97:49:02.59 119:33:16.50 -1.89
Figure 14-8A Forecasting Check Report
The Forecast Check Report contains the following information:
DATE: The ending date of the observations. For
example, if the capacity planning file used for
forecasting is summarized at the WEEKS
timespan, then the DATE value will be the date
at the end of the week's data being processed.
Actual The values of the data element used for
Observed forecasting and found in the CAP Planning file
Values: used as input for the Neugents Forecasting
Model query.
Baseline The values of the data element used for
Forecasted forecasting and found in the Forecast file
Values: created when during the Neugents Forecasting
Model query. For the Forecast Check operation
to complete successfully, a standard forecast
query must have been previously executed and
the resultant Forecast file saved.
Current The values of the data element used for
Forecasted forecasting and found in the temporary Forecast
Values: file created during the Neugents Forecasting
Check query.
Lower The lower threshold limit used for alert
Alert processing. This value is derived from the
Limit: Baseline Forecasted Values, minus the Forecast
Threshold percentage. Any Actual Observed or
Current Forecasted values that are less than
this value raise an alert condition.
Upper The upper threshold limit used for alert
Alert processing. This value is derived from the
Limit: Baseline Forecasted Values, plus the Forecast
Threshold percentage. Any Actual Observed or
Current Forecasted values that are greater than
this value raise an alert condition.
Percent The variation of either then Actual Observed
From Values or the Current Forecasted Values form
Baseline: the Baseline Forecasted Values, expressed as a
percentage.
ALERT Flag: An indicator, if present which flags a given
observation as having a data value that caused
an alert condition to be raised.
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