Previous Topic: 14.3.2.6 Regression Model Residuals GraphNext Topic: 14.4 Analytic Technique Tutorial


14.3.2.7 Forecasting Check Report


This report is produced only when the Forecasting Alerting
option is chosen.  The report displays those observations
that occur in common between the Baseline Forecast (original)
file, the updated Actual (observed values) file, and the
Current (temporary) Forecast file, as ordered by the Sysid
and time span values.  Additionally, the upper and lower
alerting limits used to generate alerts and the percentage of
variation observed from the Forecast Baseline Values.

This report is used to understand what alerts were raised
during the forecast operation, if any, and which limits were
exceeded. Appropriate MICSLOG messages will be issued to
summarized the alerting operation as well.

Analysis of Neugents Forecasting Model: Forecast Check
Forecast Data Verification for: CPUADBTM - Adjusted CPU Time
Actual File Input Date Range: 04DEC2004 - 10SEP2005
Baseline Forecast Date Range: 13AUG2005 - 15OCT2005
Forecast Level: WEEK  Forecast Length: 10  Forecast Threshold: 10 %
Observations Selected from Sysid: PROD for HOUR 22

Actual Baseline Current Percent Observed Forecasted Forecasted Lower Upper From ALERT Date Values Values Values Alert Limit Alert Limit Baseline Flag 13AUG2005 70:21:05.92 96:04:01.54 86:27:37.39 105:40:25.69 -26.77 <==== 20AUG2005 101:49:03.12 97:30:39.02 87:45:35.12 107:15:42.93 4.42 27AUG2005 123:22:45.59 98:57:35.50 89:03:49.95 108:51:21.05 24.68 <==== 03SEP2005 107:35:46.14 100:24:29.04 90:22:02.14 110:26:55.95 7.16 10SEP2005 85:20:15.03 101:50:55.80 91:39:50.22 112:02:01.38 -16.21 <==== 17SEP2005 103:16:30.34 72:20:35.55 92:56:51.31 113:36:09.37 -29.95 <==== 24SEP2005 104:40:46.12 103:21:33.33 94:12:41.50 115:08:50.73 -1.26 01OCT2005 106:03:15.96 134:24:46.87 95:26:56.36 116:39:35.55 26.74 <==== 08OCT2005 107:23:32.64 105:30:18.81 96:39:11.38 118:07:53.91 -1.76 15OCT2005 108:41:09.54 106:38:11.24 97:49:02.59 119:33:16.50 -1.89


 Figure 14-8A  Forecasting Check Report

The Forecast Check Report contains the following information:

DATE:         The ending date of the observations. For
              example, if the capacity planning file used for
              forecasting is summarized at the WEEKS
              timespan, then the DATE value will be the date
              at the end of the week's data being processed.

Actual        The values of the data element used for
Observed      forecasting and found in the CAP Planning file
Values:       used as input for the Neugents Forecasting
              Model query.

Baseline      The values of the data element used for
Forecasted    forecasting and found in the Forecast file
Values:       created when during the Neugents Forecasting
              Model query. For the Forecast Check operation
              to complete successfully, a standard forecast
              query must have been previously executed and
              the resultant Forecast file saved.

Current       The values of the data element used for
Forecasted    forecasting and found in the temporary Forecast
Values:       file created during the Neugents Forecasting
              Check query.

Lower         The lower threshold limit used for alert
Alert         processing.  This value is derived from the
Limit:        Baseline Forecasted Values, minus the Forecast
              Threshold percentage. Any Actual Observed or
              Current Forecasted values that are less than
              this value raise an alert condition.

Upper         The upper threshold limit used for alert
Alert         processing.  This value is derived from the
Limit:        Baseline Forecasted Values, plus the Forecast
              Threshold percentage. Any Actual Observed or
              Current Forecasted values that are greater than
              this value raise an alert condition.

Percent       The variation of either then Actual Observed
From          Values or the Current Forecasted Values form
Baseline:     the Baseline Forecasted Values, expressed as a
              percentage.

ALERT Flag:   An indicator, if present which flags a given
              observation as having a data value that caused
              an alert condition to be raised.