10. BUSINESS ELEMENT FORECASTING › 10.6 Case Study › 10.6.3 Developing a Business Element Model
10.6.3 Developing a Business Element Model
Once the business element file is created, perform step 5 in
the procedure listed in Section 10.4.1 to identify or create
a resource element file in the capacity planning database
file. You would create such a file using the capacity
planning database generator, described in Chapter 3. For
this case study, assume that this file has already been
created, and that it contains data for the time period under
study.
At this point, all the data that you need to perform the
study is available in the capacity planning database file,
either in a business element file or in a resource element
file. The next step in the methodology is to run a stepwise
multiple regression to identify the best model for the number
of EXCPs performed by the application. Since the business
element file contains estimates of the values of business
elements in the future as well as the corresponding
historical values, this analysis also generates forecasts for
the application EXCPs. Figure 10-13 shows the Business
Element Forecasting screen with the parameters that we
entered to invoke the stepwise procedures.
/------------------------ Business Element Forecasting -----------------------\
|Command ===> |
|Enter a ? in any data entry field for more information on valid values. |
|Composing CA MICS Inquiry: BEFM1 - Business Element Forecasting - BEF FILE |
| |
|Report title ===> Business Element Forecasting - BEF File |
| |
|Selection criteria: |
| Dependent file ===> SYS - System Planning - MONTH/ZONE/SYSID/APU |
| Dependent element ===> BILEXCPS |
| Start date ===> _________ (ddmonyyyy) |
| SYSID ===> CMPX |
| Zone ===> A________ |
| No. months ===> ___ (1-9999) |
| Save forecast ===> ___ (YES/NO/AGE) |
| Specify CAPAPU Values ===> N (Y/N) |
| |
|Independent Bus. file ===> BEF - Business Element File |
|Independent elements ===> INVOICES UPDATES OPN_ITEM ________ ________ |
| ________ ________ ________ ________ ________ |
|Confidence limits (percent) ===> __ (70/90/95) |
|Min R-squared improvement ===> _____ (0.000-0.100) |
|Delete observations ===> N (Y/N/R) |
\------------------------------------------------------------------------------/
Figure 10-13. Business Element Forecasting
On the Business Element Forecasting screen shown in Figure
10-13, we specify the three-character names of the resource
element file and the business element file for Business
Element Forecasting. For business element-based forecasting
studies, you may want to analyze a resource element file that
summarizes all of the SYSIDs and ZONEs. Although you may
normally schedule the application on a particular SYSID
during some particular ZONE, you would not want to exclude
the resources consumed by the application when it is late or
when it executes on some other SYSID due to hardware outages.
The screen indicates that a business element-based model of
the data element BILEXCPS will be developed based on
invoices, updates, and open items. Since we provide no
minimum r-squared improvement criterion, the incremental
r-squared improvement value for this study defaults to 0.05.
Since we specify no confidence limits, 95 % confidence limits
is the default. Since this execution of Business Element
Forecasting generates forecasts of the application EXCPs, we
specify on this screen that we want to save the forecast.
The forecast will be saved in the resource element forecast
file corresponding to the SYS resource element file (the
dependent file).
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