10. BUSINESS ELEMENT FORECASTING › 10.5 Component Operation › 10.5.1 Business Element Forecasting Control Screen
10.5.1 Business Element Forecasting Control Screen
Prior to arriving at the Business Element Forecasting screen
(shown in Figure 10-4) on your terminal, you will follow a
short set of menus which are more fully described in Section
1.5 of this guide. You will see this Business Element
Forecasting screen after you indicate that you want to insert
a new Business Element Forecast analysis inquiry into your
catalog of inquiries. Two fields on this screen will be
filled in on the fourth line when you first see it: the
inquiry name and the inquiry description, separated by a
dash. You entered these two fields on the Insert Capacity
Planning Analysis screen when you requested that a new
inquiry be added.
/------------------------ Business Element Forecasting -----------------------\
| Command ===> |
|Enter a ? in any data entry field for more information on valid values. |
|Composing CA MICS Inquiry: ADHOC - Adhoc Inquiry - Will Not Be Saved |
| |
|Report title ===> Adhoc Inquiry - Will Not Be Saved |
| |
|Selection criteria: |
| Dependent file ===> ___ - |
| Dependent element ===> ________ |
| Start date ===> _________ (ddmonyyyy) |
| SYSID ===> ____ |
| LVL ===> _________ |
| No. wk/mn ===> ___ (1-9999) |
| Save forecast ===> ___ (YES/NO/AGE) |
| Specify CAPAPU Values ===> N (Y/N) |
| |
|Independent Bus. file ===> ___ - |
|Independent elements ===> ________ ________ ________ ________ ________ |
| ________ ________ ________ ________ ________ |
|Confidence limits (percent) ===> __ (70/90/95) |
|Min R-squared improvement ===> _____ (0.000-0.100) |
|Delete observations ===> N (Y/N/R) |
\------------------------------------------------------------------------------/
Figure 10-4. Business Element Forecasting Control Screen
The Business Element Forecasting screen shown in Figure 10-4
presents the control parameters that allow you to develop
forecast models based on stepwise multivariate regression.
The forecasts produced by the program can be saved in a
forecast file corresponding to the file you specify as the
source of the dependent variable for the model.
Some of these parameters in Figure 10-4 are required, while
others are optional. The following is a discussion of the
various parameters as they appear in this figure.
Report The 60-character title field for the Business
title: Element Forecasting reports. No double quotes
(") or semicolons (;) may appear within the body
of the title.
Dependent The resource element or business element
file: capacity planning database file containing the
historical observations to be used for the
dependent variable of the regression model. If
you are uncertain of the files or file names
available in your capacity planning database,
type a question mark (?) in the field and a
selection list will be displayed.
Dependent The name of the dependent variable in the
element: regression model. If you are uncertain of the
correct name of the data elements in the Input
file, type a question mark (?) in this field
and a selection list will be displayed.
Start date: The start date for date range selection. If
Start date is specified, only historical
observations at least as recent as this value
are included in the analysis. The discussion
of the following control parameter describes
the options for controlling date range
selection.
SYSID: The SYSID for which the report is to be
produced. If the capacity planning database
file is defined as having a composite SYSID,
this value is automatically supplied on the
screen.
LVL: The ZONE, HOUR, or DAYNAME to be included in the
analysis, depending on whether you defined the
Dependent file at the ZONE, HOUR, or DAYNAME
summarization level. If the Dependent file is a
resource element file and you defined it as
having a composite ZONE, HOUR, or DAYNAME this
value is supplied automatically on the screen.
Note that if the Independent file is a resource
element file, this requirement does not apply,
since business element files are not defined
containing the ZONE, HOUR, or DAYNAME data
element. Note that the field name will
automatically be changed from LVL to either
ZONE, HOUR, or DAYNAME to reflect the input file
summarization level once you specify the input
file.
No. wk/mn: The maximum number of days, weeks, or months of
historical observations that will be included in
the analysis. Note that once you specify the
input file, the field name will change to
reflect the timespan of the Input file. When
used in conjunction with the Start date
parameter, several options are available for
date range selection control:
o If you specify only Start date, all
historical observations at least as recent as
the value specified for Start date will be
selected.
o If you specify both Start date and No.
wk/mn, the date range for data selection
begins with the value specified for Start
date and extends for the specified number of
days, weeks, or months.
o If you specify only No. wk/mn, the date
range for data selection will include only
this number of the most recent days, weeks,
or months.
o If you specify neither parameter, then all
historical observations will be selected.
Save Offers you three options for saving the
forecast: forecasted observations in the forecast file
corresponding to the Dependent file.
o Specifying YES causes the forecasted
observations to be saved in the capacity
planning database forecast file (CPFxxx01),
without aging the file as described in
Chapter 3.
o Specifying NO will result in the forecasted
observations not being saved in the forecast
file. If this option is selected, the
forecast file will not be aged.
o AGE will cause the forecasted observations to
be saved in the forecast file, and will cause
the forecast files to be aged as described in
Chapter 3.
Specify Put a Y in this field to specify the CAPAPU
CAPAPU value(s) to be included in the analysis. The
Values: CAPAPU value is specified on the CAPAPU
Selection Values screen, shown in Figure 10-5
(which appears if you put a Y in this field).
You may specify up to nine CAPAPUs on this
screen only if the capacity planning database
file is defined as containing the CAPAPU data
elements.
Independent The resource element or business element
file: capacity planning database file containing the
historical observations for the independent
variable of the regression model. If you are
uncertain of the files or file names available
in your capacity planning database file, type a
question mark (?) in the field and a selection
list will be displayed.
Independent The names of up to ten independent variables for
elements: the regression model. If you are uncertain of
the correct name of the data elements in the
Independent file, type a question mark (?) in
this field and a selection list of available
data elements will be displayed. The number of
Independent elements that you may specify is
limited by the number of historical observations
in the capacity planning database files. This
restriction is best explained by the following
logical relationship:
n - ie - 1 >= 3
Where n is the number of historical observations
and ie is the number of Independent elements
that you specify. For example, you must have 14
historical observations in order to specify 10
independent elements (14-10-1)>=3. This
restriction is enforced to provide a minimum of
three degrees of freedom for the statistical
models developed by the program.
Confidence The degree of confidence to be used in
limits calculating the upper and lower confidence
(percent): confidence limits for the forecasted values of
the Dependent element. The default is 95%.
Minimum The r-squared improvement criterion for the
R-squared regression model. This value excludes any
improvement: independent element from the regression model
whose inclusion does not increase the overall
r-squared value by at least this amount. If you
do not enter any value for this parameter,
Business Element Forecasting uses a value of
0.01.
Specify The dates of specific observations to be
historical excluded from the analysis. Enter a Y for this
data parameter to obtain the screen shown in
observations Figure 10-7. Enter an R to reset (nullify)
to delete: any previous date deletion specifications.
If you entered a Y in the Specify CAPAPU values field on the
Business Element Forecasting Control Screen, the CAPAPU
Selection Values screen displays, as shown in Figure 10-5.
On the CAPAPU Selection Values screen, you may specify up
to nine CAPAPU values to be included in the analysis. You
may specify CAPAPUs only if the capacity planning database
file is defined as containing the CAPAPU data elements. You
may use wild cards (? and *) when specifying CAPAPUs. A
question mark (?) replaces one character; an asterisk (*)
replaces all the characters after that point.
/------------------------- CAPAPU Selection Values --------------------------\
|Command ===> |
| |
|Composing CA MICS Inquiry: BEFR01 - FORECASTING USING BUSINESS DATA |
| |
| Rule ----+----1----+----2----+----3----+----4----+----5----+----6----|
|CAPAPU ===> ________________________________________________________________|
|CAPAPU 2 ===> ________________________________________________________________|
|CAPAPU 3 ===> ________________________________________________________________|
|CAPAPU 4 ===> ________________________________________________________________|
|CAPAPU 5 ===> ________________________________________________________________|
|CAPAPU 6 ===> ________________________________________________________________|
|CAPAPU 7 ===> ________________________________________________________________|
|CAPAPU 8 ===> ________________________________________________________________|
|CAPAPU 9 ===> ________________________________________________________________|
\------------------------------------------------------------------------------/
Figure 10-5. CAPAPU Selection Values Screen
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