10. BUSINESS ELEMENT FORECASTING › 10.3 Standard Output › 10.3.1 Update to the Forecast File

10.3.1 Update to the Forecast File

You can use the Save forecast optional parameter on the
Business Element Forecasting control screen to save
forecasted values of the dependent variable in the forecast
file that corresponds to the file containing the dependent
variable.

Typically, as a user of Business Element Forecasting, you can
develop a model using the steps outlined in Section 10.2.
This is almost always an iterative process, for the first few
choices of model parameters may not be the best choices.
Formulate the model and then review the results of that model
using the tests described in Sections 10.2 and 10.4. Should
the tests fail, you must make corrections and adjustments to
the proposed model and rerun the forecast.

Finally, you develop a model that satisfies your
requirements.  At this point, you can use the model to
generate future values for the dependent variable.  To do
this, future values of ALL the independent variables must
exist.  By rerunning the same model using the Save forecast
option mentioned above, the forecasting process generates the
future values of the dependent variable and stores them in
the appropriate file.  You may obtain the future values of
the independent business elements in either of two ways: (1)
obtaining estimates from the users of the applications, or,
(2) generating forecasts by using one of the forecasting
routines.  If both types of future value estimates are
present, Business Element Forecasting uses those provided by
you or the users of the applications.

In the forecast file, future values are stored in a special
way that is used by other functions of the CA MICS Capacity
Planner to produce comparative graphs and charts.  The
FILE_NO variable is used to distinguish between the various
types of observations within forecast files.  The
Multivariate Regression, Univariate Model, and Business
Element Forecasting facilities store a future value with a
FILE_NO of 11, and a confidence range with a FILE_NO value of
12.  In addition, each observation of a forecast contains the
variables FORYEAR and FORMNDY, FORWEEK, or FORMONTH, which
contain the date for the most recent historical data used in
making the forecast.  These concepts are discussed in more
detail in Section 3.2.